tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post1023404123963387979..comments2017-07-24T03:12:24.596-04:00Comments on Antifragile Chaos Monkey: Probability is about our knowledge...Gene Callahannoreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-71790821216161931672017-07-12T19:05:13.716-04:002017-07-12T19:05:13.716-04:001) I hold that purely subjective beliefs are impos...1) I hold that purely subjective beliefs are impossible: all belief is in fact aiming at objectivity. (See Oakeshott, Experience and Its Modes, and Polanyi, Personal Knowledge.)<br />2) I know about QM, Ken. The jury is out, but your interpretation is certainly popular with physicists. (In other words, it is a sensible belief, although not everyone accepts it, e.g., Bohm.)Gene Callahanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-81003602992196297222017-07-12T16:51:27.882-04:002017-07-12T16:51:27.882-04:00Gene, sometimes probability is just a subjective m...Gene, sometimes probability is just a subjective measure of belief, but sometimes it is not. The clearest places where it is not is in quantum mechanics. It seems that the odds in quantum theory really are objective. Ken Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08207803092348071005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-30702828210026377212017-07-12T16:07:07.690-04:002017-07-12T16:07:07.690-04:00OK, _now_ I understand what you are saying and agr...OK, _now_ I understand what you are saying and agree that you are correct.Thomas Knapphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16271473384378782680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-75627608284635909192017-07-12T15:26:17.769-04:002017-07-12T15:26:17.769-04:00But its possible to imagine a non-deterministic wo...But its possible to imagine a non-deterministic world where probability is a feature of the world "out there" , right ?<br /><br />Take someone for whom the world "out there" is a version of your basketball hot-hands model and the randomizer is truly random (uses quantum indeterminacy or something). Even if they developed a perfect understanding of their world they would have to conclude that that odds on a basket were either 30% or 70% but could never call it for sure.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04682517711551179057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-57176514430190166782017-07-12T15:09:43.741-04:002017-07-12T15:09:43.741-04:00"Well, you wrote a whole post conflating &quo..."Well, you wrote a whole post conflating "the odds" with "a person's estimate of the odds."<br /><br />As you may note in my recent post, some of the greatest pioneers of probability theory said exactly what I am saying here.Gene Callahanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-84824128431486018032017-07-12T15:08:27.589-04:002017-07-12T15:08:27.589-04:00"The odds" just ARE a person's best ..."The odds" just ARE a person's best estimate of the odds. There is nothing else there at all.<br /><br />You have hypostatized a tool of human thinking and shoved it out into the world as if there were some magical leprachaun forcing half of all coin flips to come up heads.Gene Callahanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-10104677437510206512017-07-12T15:06:28.155-04:002017-07-12T15:06:28.155-04:00Wrong Tom: the odds of a coin coming up heads bein...Wrong Tom: the odds of a coin coming up heads being "50%" is simply a statement of our ignorance concerning exactly how it was flipped. In fact, given the exact nature of the flip, there are no "odds" at all: it either WILL come up heads or it WILL come up tails.Gene Callahanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-56897187701164724702017-07-12T11:56:42.682-04:002017-07-12T11:56:42.682-04:00And Tom thinks differently.<a href="http://gene-callahan.blogspot.com/2017/07/great-minds-think-alike.html" rel="nofollow">And Tom thinks differently</a>.Gene Callahanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-41206672164146166342017-07-12T11:25:47.198-04:002017-07-12T11:25:47.198-04:00One caveat: In SOME circumstances, our knowledge o...One caveat: In SOME circumstances, our knowledge of the odds can affect the odds. For example, a 1 in 20 chance of living through some disease becoming a 19 in 20 chance because our knowledge led us to administer medication.<br /><br />But apart from that, generally speaking: If there is a 50% chance that the coin is going to come up heads, there is a 50% chance of that coin coming up heads _whether I know there is a 50% choice of that coin coming up heads or not).Thomas Knapphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16271473384378782680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-43446812839213134832017-07-12T11:23:59.563-04:002017-07-12T11:23:59.563-04:00Well, you wrote a whole post conflating "the ...Well, you wrote a whole post conflating "the odds" with "a person's estimate of the odds."<br /><br />Or at least that's the way it reads to me; but maybe you're subtly referencing some concept that's just way over my head.Thomas Knapphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16271473384378782680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-43939938625403818792017-07-12T11:21:52.054-04:002017-07-12T11:21:52.054-04:00"The odds are what they are, regardless of wh..."The odds are what they are, regardless of what we know."<br /><br />Well, I just wrote a whole post proving this is wrong. I don't think "Nope" is really a very good counter-argument.<br /><br />If we were omniscient, we would just know what will happen. The whole concept of "odds" only exists because we are not.Gene Callahanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-80720718487244552082017-07-12T07:46:15.727-04:002017-07-12T07:46:15.727-04:00The odds are what they are, regardless of what we ...The odds are what they are, regardless of what we know. Our knowledge of them doesn't affect them, it just affects whether or not we're right about them.Thomas Knapphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16271473384378782680noreply@blogger.com