tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post2282086135429802723..comments2024-02-29T03:34:23.190-05:00Comments on Who Were the Sea Peoples?: A Bayesian Spirit Catchergcallahhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-70050412580719804862015-03-28T03:09:48.943-04:002015-03-28T03:09:48.943-04:00"someone could be on mushrooms AND having a d..."someone could be on mushrooms AND having a divine vision. In fact, I personally guarantee the latter possibility can be realized!"<br /><br />Gene, are you saying that you were high on mushrooms and had a divine vision? Sorry in advance if I'm reading into this wrong.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00053155617490357148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-13521253915849292102015-03-27T15:06:53.632-04:002015-03-27T15:06:53.632-04:00Now, Ken, you should perform an analysis showing h...Now, Ken, you should perform an analysis showing how many, many people have had their ear drums pick up sound waves, versus how very few have had Murphy whisper "I told you so!" in their ear.gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-74720651691491316622015-03-27T14:46:22.384-04:002015-03-27T14:46:22.384-04:00In fact, I think it is quite possible that EVERY S...In fact, I think it is quite possible that EVERY SINGLE PERSON who sees these auras is having a vision from God. but only rare people can recognize it as such.<br /><br />You keep treating these as mutually exclusive hypotheses, as though EITHER:<br /><br />1) Gene is hearing Bob Murphy saying "I told you so!"<br /><br />OR<br /><br />2) Gene's ear drum is picking up sound waves traveling in the air.<br /><br />You have offered ZERO evidence that points to (Hildegard had migraines) and (Hildegard had visions) as mutually exclusive hypotheses. And then you want to "factor in" things like mushrooms, which ALSO are not mutually exclusive: someone could be on mushrooms AND having a divine vision. In fact, I personally guarantee the latter possibility can be realized!gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-58889488181977225862015-03-27T14:28:46.928-04:002015-03-27T14:28:46.928-04:00"Your standard in other posts was, was it acc..."Your standard in other posts was, was it accepted by the church."<br /><br />Completely made up. I never offered any such standard.<br /><br />There rest of your analysis is roughly like this"<br /><br />Someone claims "Babe Ruth was the greatest home run hitter ever."<br /><br />Someone else counters with, "But he ate lots of hot dogs!"<br /><br />I show, quite decisively, that this is IRRELEVANT, and has nothing to do with whether or not he was a great home run hitter.<br /><br />You come back with an analysis that shows... that eating hot dogs is more likely than being the greatest home run hitter!gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-40140113323346287332015-03-27T13:49:32.324-04:002015-03-27T13:49:32.324-04:00Oyveh.
Let's first talk about p(E|God).
You...Oyveh. <br /><br />Let's first talk about p(E|God). <br />Your standard in other posts was, was it accepted by the church. So ad arguendo let's go with that.<br />It's pretty small. Millions of people, few with repeated and church-accepted visions. <br />Let's be generous and say 1/100,000. <br /><br />Let's grant P(God) = 1. A crazy estimate but favorable to you. (Would you like it higher?)<br /><br />P(E) will cancel out out so we needn't estimate it. <br /><br />So your probability is proportional to 1/100,000. [1/50,000 if p(God) = 2. With Him all things are possible.]<br /><br />Now let's estimate p(Hilde had migraines). She shows evidence, so it's probably pretty high, but let's stick to <br />the population estimate, which must be favorable to you.<br />Here being femail, that is 18%. <br />Now what about p(Hilde would see stuff|Hilde had migraines). Again let's just use stats. Of those with migraines about 15% see stuff. <br />Actually it's higher if you count all stuff; I am only counting "aura". Let's use 10%; I feel generous.<br /><br />p(E|Migraines) is then proportional to 1/50.<br /><br />SO even using number wildly favorable you your case, the ratios come down on the migraine side, 2000:1 for.<br />Now toss in mushrooms, toad-licking, starvation, etc. <br /><br />Ken Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12976919713907046171noreply@blogger.com