tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post4776982480805825507..comments2024-02-29T03:34:23.190-05:00Comments on Who Were the Sea Peoples?: But Murder Rates Are Falling Everywheregcallahhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-41393037707565835692016-03-31T08:13:04.038-04:002016-03-31T08:13:04.038-04:00Not exactly an effect that is "coming" b...Not exactly an effect that is "coming" but one that is already here. MacDonald coined it after hearing it from a police officer I believe during the height of the Black Lives Matter crisis. The point is that it has been reversing the downward spiral of crime in American you correctly noted.<br /><br />Nate Silver's blog FiveThirtyEight has already confirmed a rise in homicides last year. The big objections(to law and order types) so far has been to count a lot of big cities and say it hasn't been uniform so it might be down to something else. As with so much of the crime debate, critics stay within their liberal and politically correct boundaries so their objections tend to not hold a lot of sway to people like Heather MacDonald who tends to be much more sober and data driven.The obvious test to the Ferguson effect is to focus on big cities with a high black population and where Black Lives Matters have been agitating.<br /><br />The evidence so far suggests that the Ferguson correct is a real phenomenon for the reasons law and order types claimed:<br />http://www.unz.com/isteve/homicides-2015-v-2014-there-seems-to-be-a-trend/<br />http://quillette.com/2016/03/21/ferguson-effect-detractors-are-wrong/<br />I don't think the arguments and some of the statistical evidence warrants the Ferguson effect being brushed off so lightly.The Football Nuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12579645750872418961noreply@blogger.com