tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post6217283977902672220..comments2024-02-29T03:34:23.190-05:00Comments on Who Were the Sea Peoples?: The "Hot Hand" Vindicatedgcallahhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-9605503047644002692014-02-07T07:43:21.546-05:002014-02-07T07:43:21.546-05:00Yikes! I don't know what to do about this exce...Yikes! I don't know what to do about this except post a confession: Gene when I saw this I flipped out, because I was sure you had (a few years ago) denied that hot hands existed. I remembered arguing with you about it.<br /><br />So I went to bust you on it, and then remembered that it was the other way around, that you were saying hot hands existed despite the econometric work of some guys. And I was arguing that you didn't understand what they did. <br /><br />So that's weird.Bob Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04001108408649311528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-15076014220482674342014-02-05T11:40:24.264-05:002014-02-05T11:40:24.264-05:00The defensive response objection is explicitly dea...The defensive response objection is explicitly dealt with by <a href="http://bayes.bgsu.edu/honors/the_hot_hand.pdf" rel="nofollow">Tversky</a>, who offers three responses. First: "[T]he lack of evidence for streak shooting could be attributed to the contaminating effects of shot selection and defensive strategy... This argument, however, does not explain why players and fans erroneously believe that the probability of a hit is greater following a hit than following a miss, nor can it account for the tendency of knowledgeable observers to classify random sequences as instances of streak shooting." <br /><br />Second, Tversky looked a free throws (where defensive response was not possible) and still found no hot hand effect (some later studies have found contrary results). <br /><br />Third, Tversky conducted a controlled experiment testing players' ability to predict if they would make their next shot and found they were unable to do so. <br /><br />So wherever you come down on the issue, it's not like this was a consideration that wasn't dealt with in the original hot hand literature. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com