tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post1035697528546994862..comments2024-02-29T03:34:23.190-05:00Comments on Who Were the Sea Peoples?: "Each H1B Visa...gcallahhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-58216212386370967762017-04-05T12:26:54.736-04:002017-04-05T12:26:54.736-04:00I think research has shown that 89.23% of quoted s...I think research has shown that 89.23% of quoted statistics use spurious levels of accuracy.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04682517711551179057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-41820051800977492502017-04-05T10:41:46.314-04:002017-04-05T10:41:46.314-04:00Is it that a single visa can't create .83 of a...Is it that a single visa can't create .83 of a job? Josiah Neeleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04991797256901556143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-34876700604466743592017-04-05T09:55:41.034-04:002017-04-05T09:55:41.034-04:00Right: I don't even believe the second decimal...Right: I don't even believe the second decimal place. Just being able to decide the *direction* of the effect would be an accomplishment.gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-4962082264757909482017-04-05T09:54:37.793-04:002017-04-05T09:54:37.793-04:00"I would question whether it was remotely pos..."I would question whether it was remotely possible to estimate an answer like that out to 3 sig figs."<br /><br />There you go! The stated precision is completely absurd. If a study like this could actually show "Each H1B Visa holder creates between 1 and 3 new American jobs," that would be a worthy accomplishment.gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-14067063700614094672017-04-05T09:43:58.664-04:002017-04-05T09:43:58.664-04:00Not sure if this is what you mean, but the last de...Not sure if this is what you mean, but the last decimal place is suspicious. It is hard to see how anyone could *conclusively* demonstrate a relationship between jobs and visas when it's impossible to re-run the experiment. To quantify it to the third decimal place is laughable.Crosbiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02005295490663931940noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-52930948043722894502017-04-05T09:28:53.034-04:002017-04-05T09:28:53.034-04:00I would question whether it was remotely possible ...I would question whether it was remotely possible to estimate an answer like that out to 3 sig figs. But that's probably just because I am a chemist.<br /><br />Also, we don't know the methodology, but from the way it's worded, I would suspect they are not talking net, so they are not counting the job taken by the visa-holder. Net it would be maybe 0.8 jobs.<br /><br />(And of course, that is not including the effect on MVP of labor, the nature of this newly created job, and stuff like that, but I don't think that's what you're looking for...)Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12915297057336831151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-44206746718756826012017-04-05T09:21:11.439-04:002017-04-05T09:21:11.439-04:00Is the problem that producing jobs should not be a...Is the problem that producing jobs should not be a goal? Producing wealth, the ability to have meaningful leisure, and happiness should be?<br /><br />Tim McVeigh surely produced at least 1.83 jobs, and the War on Drugs surely created millions of jobs.Andyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07221537769343338514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-47685118915209510672017-04-05T08:01:26.194-04:002017-04-05T08:01:26.194-04:00See my update.See my update.gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-18100694874463146322017-04-05T07:27:57.551-04:002017-04-05T07:27:57.551-04:00No, more obvious, once you are trained to evaluate...No, more obvious, once you are trained to evaluate studies.gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-70292419974420492672017-04-05T07:27:30.796-04:002017-04-05T07:27:30.796-04:00Yes. There is a really terrible problem which we d...Yes. There is a really terrible problem which we don't need a speck of empirical evidence to see.gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-5843087864976172042017-04-05T00:19:53.483-04:002017-04-05T00:19:53.483-04:00Uh . . . one of the 1.83 is a new bureaucrat posit...Uh . . . one of the 1.83 is a new bureaucrat position?<br /><br />Other than that, my only answer is that the visa doesn't create jobs - people do.Karl W/ A Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12478713719075274580noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-80660418408632087412017-04-04T23:39:36.554-04:002017-04-04T23:39:36.554-04:00I doubt its true - but I see no reason why it cou...I doubt its true - but I see no reason why it couldn't be true in theory. Suppose for example that the visas were for people who generated $200k of foreign income that otherwise wouldn't be earned. Some of this income is then spent (by the visa-holder or those employing them) on domestic goods - and this leads to 1.83 additional Americans being employed.<br /><br />Am I missing something ?robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04682517711551179057noreply@blogger.com