tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post4021805861148103859..comments2024-02-29T03:34:23.190-05:00Comments on Who Were the Sea Peoples?: Hot Streak Lengthgcallahhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comBlogger54125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-4133737657447235682017-07-28T19:25:49.177-04:002017-07-28T19:25:49.177-04:00It's as though glass could be brittle without ...It's as though glass could be brittle without actually flying into fragments at every moment!gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-91368227445348987072017-07-27T22:22:57.370-04:002017-07-27T22:22:57.370-04:00I have been on vacation, and have not caught up on...I have been on vacation, and have not caught up on these threads, but I had a realization. In your definitions a man who misses 10 in a row could be on a "hot streak" and a guy who misses 10 in a row on a cold streak. Which I think more or less answers the question, are Gene's definitions really odd and idiosyncratic? Ken Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08207803092348071005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-61663549927409144442017-07-21T16:56:57.748-04:002017-07-21T16:56:57.748-04:00Gene, in your model hot hands have predictive valu...Gene, in your model hot hands have predictive value for those who have inside information about whether the hot hand is on. Do you believe that it's possible to make a model where hot hands exist but have no predictive value for those who have inside information about whether the hot hand is on?Keshav Srinivasanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04754620266852651577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-75812347345320885202017-07-21T11:44:26.566-04:002017-07-21T11:44:26.566-04:00"2) was on whether a player (or his partner) ..."2) was on whether a player (or his partner) could predict single shots going in at a rate above random."<br /><br />Because they were "hot," i.e., on a streak. Look, TRY to behave, or I'm just going to delete all future comments.gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-29579086199338735022017-07-21T11:43:05.026-04:002017-07-21T11:43:05.026-04:00'But Gene, do you at least acknowledge that in...'But Gene, do you at least acknowledge that in your model, the question "Do hot hands exist?" and the question "Do hot hands have predictive value for those with inside information?" are basically equivalent?'<br /><br />Why would I acknowledge such nonsense?!gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-88496131392821069322017-07-21T11:31:23.543-04:002017-07-21T11:31:23.543-04:00The 2 questions are:
1) Do streaks have predictive...The 2 questions are:<br />1) Do streaks have predictive value? AND<br />2) Do players get "hot"?<br /><br />The test used for 2) was on whether a player (or his partner) could predict single shots going in at a rate above random. I do not see that this has anything to do with whether "streaks have predictive power" since "steaks" and "single shots" are different things. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04682517711551179057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-34521940362974671692017-07-21T02:19:18.433-04:002017-07-21T02:19:18.433-04:00But Gene, do you at least acknowledge that in your...But Gene, do you at least acknowledge that in your model, the question "Do hot hands exist?" and the question "Do hot hands have predictive value for those with inside information?" are basically equivalent?Keshav Srinivasanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04754620266852651577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-89092826474475520072017-07-21T00:35:12.962-04:002017-07-21T00:35:12.962-04:00Well, other than all of our actual comments, what ...Well, other than all of our actual comments, what more would you like to see?gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-82926696909528340092017-07-21T00:34:40.176-04:002017-07-21T00:34:40.176-04:00Remember, their second test was still "Could ...Remember, their second test was still "Could the player himself predict his next shot?"<br /><br />That IS different than asking if an outsider can predict it, but it is still testing question 1, and not question 2.gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-31435377124209365822017-07-21T00:33:38.840-04:002017-07-21T00:33:38.840-04:00No, but they didn't test two issues: in both c...No, but they didn't test two issues: in both cases, their test was" "Do hot hands predict?"<br /><br />I said they had conflated "Do hot hands predict?" and "Do hot hands exist?"<br /><br />Two tests of whether they predict do not test these two separate questions!gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-52159476770833220472017-07-20T17:24:26.642-04:002017-07-20T17:24:26.642-04:00OK - fair enough - you said the 2 issues were con...OK - fair enough - you said the 2 issues were conflated not the tests for the 2 issues. <br /><br />So I should have said:<br /><br />'I see no grounds for his charge that the 2 issues are conflated or that the very different tests they ran on them are evidence of this conflation"<br />robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04682517711551179057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-52154436161057017792017-07-20T14:05:00.523-04:002017-07-20T14:05:00.523-04:00I made my response into a top level post.I made my response into a top level post.gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-14059365576614896852017-07-20T14:04:38.846-04:002017-07-20T14:04:38.846-04:00Rob, I never said the two tests were conflated!Rob, I never said the two tests were conflated!gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-55550900146429476032017-07-20T12:45:43.159-04:002017-07-20T12:45:43.159-04:00If all Gene was saying was that TGV made a strong ...If all Gene was saying was that TGV made a strong claim rejecting hot hands based on what may been a false negative resulting from a badly constructed test I would agree with him.<br /><br />But I see no grounds for his charge that the 2 very different tests they ran were "conflated" just because they both use predictive techniques.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04682517711551179057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-20081907349623915102017-07-19T16:45:18.357-04:002017-07-19T16:45:18.357-04:00Gene, they tested the following two hypotheses:
1...Gene, they tested the following two hypotheses:<br /><br />1. Do hot hands have predictive value for those who have no inside information?<br />2. Do hot hands have predictive value for those who have inside information on whether a hot hand is on or not?<br /><br />They found that the answer was no in both cases. Now you may think their test of 2 was flawed, but they did attempt to test both.<br /><br />(There is of course a possibility that hot hands exist but don't even have predictive value for those with inside information, but even you are not arguing for that.)<br />Keshav Srinivasanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04754620266852651577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-52109489761919808562017-07-19T00:07:51.082-04:002017-07-19T00:07:51.082-04:00While it may be hard to believe based on the way h...While it may be hard to believe based on the way he generally responds to my comments - I actually don't think I had a serious dispute with Gene on this stuff beyond a view that he is perhaps a bit unfair to TGV who I think do address (albeit inadequately) his scenario of the possibility of hot-hands that may be statistically undetectable.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04682517711551179057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-14839177739848191962017-07-18T17:13:06.171-04:002017-07-18T17:13:06.171-04:00I am genuinely confused now. May I ask some clari...I am genuinely confused now. May I ask some clarifying questions ?<br /><br />1. TGV devised the tests for the possible existence of "hot hands" in a scenario 'when the pattern of hits and misses does not stray from chance expectation'. Do you agree that they are at least trying to test for the hot hands in the scenario modeled by your python program ?<br /><br />2. Had the players in the TGV tests been able to use their knowledge of their own "hot hand" status to predict baskets often enough to make more money in the game than pure chance would allow would this not have been a valid "proof" that hot-hands exits ? If not, why not ?<br /><br />3. Your python program claimed to have developed a model where "Hot streaks are statistically undetectable; and offer no predictive leverage for a player's next shot.". I had taken that to mean "next shot after a a basket". If you actually meant "next shot after entering hot status" then someone with knowledge of the programs inner state would have a predictive advantage in calling the players next show wouldn't they ? And if so, why would that be an invalid thing to test for ?<br /><br />- Just for reference can you give an example of a test for hot-hands (of the second variety) that would not in some way rely on the the enhanced predictive powers of someone with knowledge of the hot-hands state ? robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04682517711551179057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-5970555276716952792017-07-18T15:35:50.567-04:002017-07-18T15:35:50.567-04:00"No matter how flawed their tests may have be..."No matter how flawed their tests may have been they did run independent set of tests for "hot-hands" of both type 1 and 2."<br /><br />NO THEY DIDN'T!!! They asked a player to PREDICT his next shot.<br /><br />So they did TWO TESTS OF WHETHER THE HOT HAND HAS PREDICTIVE VALUE. Like I said, they conflated 1 and 2.gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-75207232348472808382017-07-18T15:14:24.464-04:002017-07-18T15:14:24.464-04:00Gene,
It might help for you to resolve your dispu...Gene,<br /><br />It might help for you to resolve your dispute with Ken B. (and poor rob) if you did a separate post explaining how you would react to researchers who published a paper like this:<br /><br />"Abstract: It is well-known that players at the craps table are said to have a 'hot hand' after several advantageous rolls. The rollers themselves often report subjectively feeling 'in the zone' during streaks of successful rolls. However, using both Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian inference models, we conclude that such 'patterns' are illusory and provide no operationally useful betting opportunity."Bob Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04001108408649311528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-28020748854022669092017-07-17T23:39:57.832-04:002017-07-17T23:39:57.832-04:00Gene, I just thought of a potential way to test yo...Gene, I just thought of a potential way to test your version of hot hands. Make it so that the player themselves doesn't know whether when they did well and when they didn't. (I'm not sure which sports if any this would be practical in.) And then subsequently ask them "At what moments were you hot", and try to see whether that correlates with the results.Keshav Srinivasanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04754620266852651577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-45483748496519523942017-07-17T21:54:15.925-04:002017-07-17T21:54:15.925-04:00Someone want to explain to me what you guys are ar...Someone want to explain to me what you guys are arguing about?Samson Corwellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10148822362930969284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-70185105764176046282017-07-17T21:31:34.933-04:002017-07-17T21:31:34.933-04:00You said:
'They conflate two issues:
1) Do st...You said:<br /><br />'They conflate two issues:<br />1) Do streaks have predictive value? AND<br />2) Do players get "hot"?<br />They continually imply that if 1) is untrue, then 2) is false.'<br /><br />By 1) I assume you mean predictive value of the "if the player has got 5 baskets in row does that increase the odd of the 6th going in?" variety.<br /><br />By 2) I assume you mean "if the player is hot even for a single shot then he is more likely to score than if he wasn't hot". If anyone had insight into this state of "hotness" it would also have predictive value (this is how you won money of of Ken and Me in one the earlier posts, right?)<br /><br /><br />No matter how flawed their tests may have been they did run independent set of tests for "hot-hands" of both type 1 and 2.<br /><br />This led them (perhaps erroneously in both cases) to reject either type of hot-hands. But they did not (as you claim) reject 2 just because they rejected 1.<br /><br />They obviously considered the possibility of 1 being unproven but 2 still being true. This means they accepted that 'the findings "debunking" hot hands [rob: of type 1] are all entirely consistent with the actual existence of hot hands [rob: of type 2].'. (this is a quote from your first post on the topic). <br /><br />Its just that their (possibly flawed) tests didn't find evidence for type 2 hot hands either.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04682517711551179057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-85332683358466622182017-07-17T21:08:44.553-04:002017-07-17T21:08:44.553-04:00Well it may be a terrible test.
But nevertheless...Well it may be a terrible test.<br /><br />But nevertheless it definitely is a test that attempts to validate whether the claim that players' perception of being "hot" at certain times is just an illusion or not. <br /><br />I had the impression you were claiming that TGV just looked for statistical evidence that players were more likely to score when on a streak, and when they didn't find it you were saying they rejected the idea of "hot hands" . This section of their paper shows they went beyond that (no matter how unrealistic their test may actually have been) and looked at the possibility of hot hands 'even when the pattern of hits and misses does not stray from chance expectation' which is very close to what you are talking about in these posts.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04682517711551179057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-39459096123394774492017-07-17T20:30:51.547-04:002017-07-17T20:30:51.547-04:00Yes, this is a TERRIBLE test for what I am talking...Yes, this is a TERRIBLE test for what I am talking about! "Let's take the player OUT OF the hot hand state by asking them to formulate a probability statement instead of being "in the zone," and then use the results of our ending the hot hand state to prove it doesn't exist!"<br /><br />Which is exactly what I object to in their paper! So they absolutely did NOT test for hot hands in my sense!gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-50691318814221964012017-07-17T20:10:52.999-04:002017-07-17T20:10:52.999-04:00"I found no evidence that they make any state..."I found no evidence that they make any statements elsewhere in the paper either to backup Gene's claim - but perhaps my reading comprehension skills let me down.)"<br /><br />Yes, it did, since the exact section you cite IS them using the predictability test to debunk the idea that such a thing as "being hot" exists!gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.com