tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post5556591130948321147..comments2024-02-29T03:34:23.190-05:00Comments on Who Were the Sea Peoples?: Misusing Probabilitygcallahhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-72748572821549963072016-05-11T14:52:38.450-04:002016-05-11T14:52:38.450-04:00Great post! Am I right to say that you differ from...Great post! Am I right to say that you differ from Mises in that Mises thinks it's illegitimate to use typical probabalistic analysis for case probability and you think it's flawed but could conceivably be useful if done right?Bharathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17342766321155942855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-81413842891223202552016-05-11T07:10:59.973-04:002016-05-11T07:10:59.973-04:00Being a billionaire may be an important factor, bu...Being a billionaire may be an important factor, but it worked relatively poorly for the political career of the Rockefellers.Prateekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15287835907015065883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-56242414572089406202016-05-09T23:55:24.651-04:002016-05-09T23:55:24.651-04:00Thanks!Thanks!gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-60413627785100403282016-05-09T14:50:00.978-04:002016-05-09T14:50:00.978-04:00Here's the thing, Silas: I DON'T object to...Here's the thing, Silas: I DON'T object to someone trying to do what Silver is doing. But even if the predictor shows as well calibrated for a while, we have strong reasons to believe, while all of these vital factors left out, that that is a transient state of affairs. As shown by Silver's mistakes this cycle!gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-21378424844688232942016-05-09T14:23:13.446-04:002016-05-09T14:23:13.446-04:00I think the statistical abstraction issues you lis...I think the statistical abstraction issues you list are moot so long as the predictor can prove to be well-calibrated: 5% of their 5%-assigned-probability events happen, 10% of their 10%-assigned, and so on. That would establish that they're appropriately abstracting over the relevant classes.<br /><br />The problem, though, is that Silver has failed at that for this cycle. While, I don't have the figures for nominations, I know that his <a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/" rel="nofollow">primary predictions</a> has given Bernie Sanders several "1% chance to win" forecasts that Sanders went on to win; he's well over winning 1% of those!Silas Bartahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09480427306873460464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7225373.post-75340701453666370212016-05-09T11:30:23.607-04:002016-05-09T11:30:23.607-04:00This is one of my favorite posts of yours. So much...This is one of my favorite posts of yours. So much common sense here and just skewers this fetish with quantifying everything and throwing human judgement out the window. I'm all for quantifying things, even when wrong, you can gain interesting insights. But placing proper weight on and understanding the limits of the model are really left to philosophy and not statistics. DKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04296310901976063862noreply@blogger.com