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Showing posts with the label auction theory

Defining Risk as Volatility in the Financial Literature

Definitions are not generally wrong. But in technical subjects they can differ greatly from common use, and it can be genuinely wrong to think the technical definition "captures" the common one when really it has simply given a word a very different meaning in the technical subject. Consider how risk in finance is often defined as the variance of returns. This is not wrong, but is hardly synonymous with everyday use. Let's I am in a car going over a cliff. If I do nothing, I am dead for sure. But if I leap out, there is a 20% chance I will live. In ordinary talk, we'd say the first option is riskier, since we usually talk of risk as the chance a bad result will occur. But in finance theory, it is jumping out that is risky: it makes the predicted variance of return higher. And so in auction theory : bidding higher definitely increases the chance of losing money, so in ordinary speech we'd call a bidder "cautious" who makes low bids. But the varianc...

Risk Averse Bidders in Auctions

I am very puzzled: in a lecture course on game theory, I heard the lecturer state that "risk averse" bidders will not behave as standard theory says they should: they will bid too high since they are averse to the risk of not winning the auction. But wait: why is that called risk averse, rather than being averse to the risk of paying too much for an item? This seems arbitrary. Any explanations?