The Antifragile Chaos Monkey
C’mon. Be serious. You can buy a detached three family in Brooklyn for half that price. A similar property in Detroit might fetch $10,000 under the right conditions. Even at that price, I’m not sure if you can make it cash flow positive.
All depends on the neighborhood, Woody -- in the nice Italian neighborhood where I live, that'll get you a two-bed condo.
I haven't been around for a while due to how busy I've been pricing REO properties. I'm working on national accounts, and work on Brooklyn properties quite often. I'm doing the requisite reckless job, I should add... We're smashing the market! I don't think I'd pay $500k for a 2bed in Brooklyn Heights, but I'm sure there's a market for it. My models show around Brooklyn Heights, Carrol Gardens... ummm down 35% yr/yr. I had a three family in bensonhurst recently, nice, large and relatively new... kept telling the guy in the field 700, and he kept coming back in the threes. An REO perpective, mind you, but "that's what's the deal we're dealin' in." These guys pull their comps from Sheepshead to price Bensonhurst and so on.... Bed Stuy prices Clinton Hill, etc, etc. It's the bubble in reverse.See you in Detroit.
My friend who is a broker reports nô decline in prices at all, just a slow down in sales -- which, of course, points to a future decline in prices, but doesnt give us an amount.
Is your friend one of those who do not count short sales or REOs? If so, maybe he's only missing a part of the move. In the first year of our collapse in Florida, there were veterens who insisted that REOs and Short Sales didn't count.Let's face it, commercial is in the process of an even bigger crash. Even those who are normally bullish admit that commercial rents and price have crashed in the past year in Manhattan. I'm not a buyer of anything up there. I think we're just getting started when you consider all of these mortgages that will balloon in the next few years.
2 bedroom condos going for up to $1 million: http://www.brooklynbridgerealty.com/display.cgi?mode=display_coops
I actually think it's your model that should "C'mon, be serious" -- as I search a bit, I find it is impossible to find a 2 bed condo in Brooklyn Heights as CHEAP as $500,000 -- $700,000 to $800,000 is more like it. Maybe you were looking at Brooklyn, CT?
I didn't know they allowed Italians in Brooklyn Heights. I thought you might live in Bensonhurst. Now that's a nice Italian neighborhood. Listings only suggest a ceiling to prices. I have a lot of problems working in Brooklyn and Manhattan as there's no centralized MLS system (or rather a lot of stuff doesn't get "listed"). My interest is mainly in bank owned properties and short sales, ie, liquidation values. Much of this market exists in the shadows.
Very amusing, Woody. Didn't you notice that there were *sales* on that page as well -- like a 2-bed condo in BH for $800,000?