Henry Abbott shows us how, when asked if the Miami Heat will win next year's NBA title:
"There's no reason they couldn't."
Yes, Henry, what they were asking you was if it is strictly impossible that the Heat will win.
"It's a one-out-of-thirty proposition."
So one of the teams in the NBA will win the NBA championship?
"Which means you can be the best team in the NBA and still not make it out of random chance."
Rather than random determinism or non-random chance.
"It's like throwing a dart -- the best darts players in the world still miss quite often. So, if I had to bet on any single team I'd bet on the field."
If Henry HAD to bet on any single team... he still wouldn't.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb's extreme risk analytics Christmas party.
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Is shaping up nicely .
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