Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Difficulty of Predicting Human Action, Part II

So ESPN had fourteen experts pick their final four for the NCAA Tournament. That gives us 56 picks for the final four teams. How many were correct? Two. That's a 3.5% success rate.

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Mathematics

"If your approach to mathematics is mechanical not mystical, you're not going to go anywhere." -- Nassim Nicholas Taleb