Saturday, June 13, 2009

Two Years from Now, What Will Be Happening?

Since pundits gain a great deal of fame from having correctly predicted the future, let me take a stab at saying what will being going on, say, two years from now, on June 13, 2011.

First of all, the stimulus programs will be seen to have fallen short of the mark. The Dow will stand at, say, 11,985, give or take a couple of points. Gold will be about $1515 an ounce, and oil at $97 per barrel. The yield on ten-year treasuries will be just under 3%. Unemployment claims will be stuck above 400,000.

In response, Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong will be saying "I told you so: the stimulus was too small." And in his response to their response, on June 13, 2011, Mario Rizzo will write a blog post pointing back to the blog post where he foresaw Krugman saying this, and claim that Hayekians have a right to say "I told you so" as well. And I predict Daniel Kuehn will come back with a note saying Mario's post has not proved anything. And Mario will agree!


  1. Fantastic. You win the Prize. I will go back to retro-diction.


  2. Give me a break Gene. I went back and saw that you made the identical post every day in 2009, for two years in the future. It was bound to hit once out of 365 days.


Distraction Deterrents in Small Contexts

"distracted from distraction by distraction" - T.S. Eliot I've been reading a little on how Facebook and other social netwo...