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Sunday, October 24, 2010

Inexplicable NFL Calls

The Vikings had the ball with a handful of seconds left in the first half. They tried a long bomb to Randy Moss. He caught it, but got called for pass interference. The Vikings then let the clock run out, although they had time for two more bombs.

One of the announcers was so puzzled that she went and asked Minnesota's head coach about it at halftime. His explanation? "We decided we were going to take one shot at it."

That's an explanation?! That describes what they did, but certainly does not explain it. You just saw Randy Moss could beat his defender. Why not let him try again? (And Moss agreed with me: He was clearly exasperated when the Vikings ran out the clock.) I see teams do this a lot. But why isn't it a straight probability calculation: Yes, there is some chance a bomb will be intercepted and returned for a touchdown, but isn't that a miniscule probability compared to the (still tiny) chance that your team will score?

Also: Brett Favre is done. Stick a fork in him. His desire to be the hero is destroying him. Both recent interceptions (I write this in Q 3) never should have been thrown at all.

1 comment:

  1. So this is not like, f'rinstance, rolling a seven and then passing the dice: the one motivation is ad fatum, the other is contra fato.

    ReplyDelete