All trends can be extrapolated forever!

"We are on track to rid the planet of trees within 600 years." -- Melissa Holbrook Pierson, reviewing Lab Girl in the April 10 Book Review section

I suppose if Ms. Holbrook Pierson heard that her friend's child had increased in weight from 8 pounds to 16 pounds in his first year, she would conclude, "He is on track to weigh 1 quadrillion 125 trillion pounds by the time he is 50!"

Comments

  1. Your calculations are off. Clearly, the baby is on track to weighing 408 pounds by 50 years of age.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Birth: 2^3
      Year 1: 2^4
      .
      .
      Year 47: 2^50
      (I was off: I forgot I didn't start at 2^0 at year 0! But my number should have been bigger, in fact!

      Delete
    2. I thought you were starting with 8 and doubling it each year after birth (I didn't check the result of 8*2^50). I was going with linear regression.

      a=(16-8)/(1-0)=8
      b=8
      x=50
      y=a*x+b=50*8+8=408

      Delete

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