All trends can be extrapolated forever!

"We are on track to rid the planet of trees within 600 years." -- Melissa Holbrook Pierson, reviewing Lab Girl in the April 10 Book Review section

I suppose if Ms. Holbrook Pierson heard that her friend's child had increased in weight from 8 pounds to 16 pounds in his first year, she would conclude, "He is on track to weigh 1 quadrillion 125 trillion pounds by the time he is 50!"

3 comments:

  1. Your calculations are off. Clearly, the baby is on track to weighing 408 pounds by 50 years of age.

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    Replies
    1. Birth: 2^3
      Year 1: 2^4
      .
      .
      Year 47: 2^50
      (I was off: I forgot I didn't start at 2^0 at year 0! But my number should have been bigger, in fact!

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    2. I thought you were starting with 8 and doubling it each year after birth (I didn't check the result of 8*2^50). I was going with linear regression.

      a=(16-8)/(1-0)=8
      b=8
      x=50
      y=a*x+b=50*8+8=408

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