Who Were the Sea Peoples?

Up until about May, Ron Paul supporters kept telling me he was definitely going to win the GOP nomination, or at least that it was quite probable that he would. Now, on Facebook, they are saying, "Well, of course the establishment was never going to let him win!" So were the odds close to 100%, or were they 0%? Because it really can't be both!

Since my last post on the GOP nomination "battle," the delegate tally is: Romney: 190 Paul: 13 Romney is now ahead of Paul in delegate count 1169 to 118. Paul just lost his home state to Romney by over 800,000 votes, out of 1.4 million cast. I really don't keep posting these to rub it in. I would have loved to see Paul beat Romney: I don't agree with Paul on everything, but Romney is bloody awful. Instead, I am urging those who kept saying that "Paul has a very good shot at the nomination," or "It is treason to [state the plain fact that] Paul has no shot" to ask yourself: What the f&*k was I thinking? Because somehow, your thoughts here had become utterly disconnected from reality.

Romney: 84 Paul: 6 The popular vote for the three states combined went about six-to-one for Romney over Paul. In fact, two candidates no longer in the race, combined, received many more votes than did Paul. Why do I continue posting on this topic? Well, I hope that some of the people who were saying "Paul has an excellent shot at winning the GOP nomination" will stop and ask themselves, "What the hell was I thinking? How did I wind up convincing myself that this was true? And what about the people who were selling me this idea? Did they really believe it?" Because it was obvious to anyone looking at the situation realistically, whether or not they wished Paul could win, that he could not win. As I have said repeatedly, the calculus is very, very simple: a dove cannot win the presidential nomination of a party where 80% or more of the voters are seriously hawkish. It would be kind of like F.A. Hayek running for the Soviet premiership in 1960: as much as I w...

In yesterday's delegate counts as of this moment, Romney is up 65-3 on Paul. That lead will widen significantly, probably to something like 200 up for Romney. In the popular vote, Romney is beating Paul by four or five to one. Perhaps Paul is just trying to make him overconfident?

Let's say Ron Paul's "caucus strategy" plays out perfectly, and he wins overwhelming victories in all of the remaining caucuses. Meanwhile, Romney takes all of the delegates from every remaining primary. How will that work out in delegate count ? Romney: 955 Paul: 98 (Yes, we might expect Paul to pick up a handful of delegates in a few proportional primaries, but, really... this was supposed to be a winning strategy ?!)

In yesterday's primary result, Romney beat Paul in delegates won 83-0. All bound delegates. I wonder why no one has taken my bet yet ?

In Virginia , the state where Ron Paul did his very best in the popular vote, Romney won the delegate race 43 to 3. These are pledged delegates. Only a handful of states permit the kind of manipulation at the district level that is allowing Paul to greatly exceed his popular vote totals in some places. The Paul campaign itself has said it hopes to pick up six states this way, none of them very large. So that leaves him getting whomped in delegate count in 44 other states, by totals similar to the above. (For instance, in California, a winner-take-all state, he will lose 172-0.) I will bet anyone who wants even money that Paul will lose to Romney by at least 500 delegates. Any takers? Say, for a thousand?

the mainstream media was exactly right: Ron Paul is and has always been a fringe candidate in the GOP nominating process? Here are the popular vote totals at present: Romney: 4,068,009 Santorum: 2,756,427 Gingrich: 2,181,655 Paul: 1,067,740 Paul is losing to the next-worst candidate 2-to-1. He's not even close to the guy who is getting crushed. And far from his "delegate strategy" working out, he is doing even more poorly in delegate count: Romney 560 34.9% Santorum 246 29.5% Gingrich 141 14.4% Paul 66 6.50% Yes, I know, in super-secret private delegate counts , "Ron Paul is racking up delegates under the radar," and "it is far more likely that Ron Paul has almost as many real delegates as Romney nationally, if not more," but one crazy idea (the media is off by about a factor of ten in their delegate count) really cannot be used to support another one (Ron Paul has a good chance of winning the GOP nomination). UPDATE: Real Clear Politi...

Sometimes, it might appear that there is a gulf separating the way pro-Paul and anti-Paul people judge the Texas congressman. The pro-Paul people say, "Ron Paul is a man in the mold of this nation's founders, a true defender of the views that formed this Republic!" The anti-forces say, "Are you kidding? Ron Paul is a nut job, a person who believes completely absurd things about there being massive, dark conspiracies to rob us of our liberty." Well, folks, if I am one thing, it is a uniter not a fighter, so I'm here to say, you can both be right, because... the founders also generally believed completely absurd things about there being massive, dark conspiracies to rob them of their liberty! Although I don't think this will get into the high school history books anytime soon, I do believe this is now generally recognized by the experts in the field, people like Pocock, Bailyn, and Wood. Here is Wood: [The rebels thought that] the Tories were a...

Although only 12% of the vote is in, it is obvious Ron Paul will be well over 30% in Virginia when all the ballots are counted. And I am a man of my word . Paul is still going to lose by quite a bit, but I am truly surprised to see him doing this well.

In the most recent polls from the state's having primaries today, Paul is: Last in Georgia, with 8% of the vote. Third in Massachusetts, with 7%. Last in Ohio, with 11%. Last in Oklahoma, with 7%. Third in Vermont, with 11%. (I did not cherry-pick the states in which he is doing the worst: the above is every state for which RealClearPolitics has a poll.) Here's a question you should now ask yourself, if you once thought Paul had a "good chance" of winning the GOP nomination: "How did my views wind up so out of line with reality?" One fact about Paul's candidacy has always been glaringly obvious: he is a strongly anti-war candidate in a strongly pro-war party. That is all one ever needed to know to realize he has never had a chance of getting the nomination. Look, I love my daughter, and am happy she is now in her second year of competitive swimming. But if she comes to me today and tells me, "Dad, I'm going to win a gold medal at th...