Regression to the mean
Sports fans in particular mis-use the idea of "regression to the mean," speaking of it, as though it were some causal power, impacting real, physical events. This is mistaken; let's look at why. If I have a fair coin, and I have flipped 20 heads in a row, that does not mean that I am "due" for a tail. My odds of getting a tail on the next flip are still one in two. Furthermore, my odds of flipping 20 heads in a row are no different after just having done so then they are at any other time. They are very high against doing so (around one in a million), but your past series of flips does not affect them at all. Thus, if you just flipped 20 heads in a row, your chances of now reaching a streak of 40 are the same as your chances were for getting the original 20. So even in games of pure chance, regression to the mean is not some strange physical force that controls future flips of the coin. All it says, in simplified terms, is that you're not likely to get th...