OK, Which Is It?

Up until about May, Ron Paul supporters kept telling me he was definitely going to win the GOP nomination, or at least that it was quite probable that he would.

Now, on Facebook, they are saying, "Well, of course the establishment was never going to let him win!"

So were the odds close to 100%, or were they 0%?

Because it really can't be both!


  1. The guy at the track with a ticket for a long shot feels much the same way. Once he buys the ticket, he feels much more certain that his horse will win. Once his horse loses he feels much more certain that the race was rigged.

  2. Could it be that it was different individuals saying these different things? That, due to developments, the 100%ers have quieted down, and the 0%ers are piping up? And that you're not having a conversation with a strange, schizophrenic entity named "Ron Paul supporters"?

    1. "Could it be that it was different individuals saying these different things?"

      Could be, but I think August's explanation is a lot more like it.

    2. Daniel's explanation reflects my experience. My Facebook friends who had worked on the campaign - people who are 100%ers as policy - rarely post RP news these days. My Facebook conspiracy minded friends, however, have tended to be pessimistic the whole way.


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