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Friday, September 16, 2005

Is global warming causing stronger hurricanes?

Dr. William Gray, the world's foremost hurricane expert, says: "And, the people that say that [global warming is increasing hurricane activity] are usually those that know very little about hurricanes."

In an interview, Dr. James O'Brien, hurricane expert at Florida State, was asked "Do you think that global warming has had an affect on the intensity of hurricanes?"

His answer?

"Absolutely not. All of the people who are hurricane scientists or teach about hurricanes at the graduate level that I've talked to agree with me."

Hurricannes were stronger in the late 19th century than today:

Accumlated Cyclone Energy (combines the numbers of systems, how long
they existed and how intense they became) -
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

1969-2003 1877-1901

ACE ACE
1969 158 1877 73
1970 34 1878 181
1971 97 1879 64
1972 28 1880 131
1973 43 1881 59
1974 61 1882 63
1975 73 1883 67
1976 81 1884 72
1977 25 1885 58
1978 62 1886 166
1979 91 1887 182
1980 147 1888 85
1981 93 1889 104
1982 29 1890 33
1983 17 1891 116
1984 71 1892 116
1985 88 1893 231
1986 36 1894 135
1987 34 1895 69
1988 103 1896 136
1989 135 1897 55
1990 91 1898 113
1991 34 1899 150
1992 75 1900 84
1993 39 1901 93
1994 32 1902 33
1995 227 1903 102
1996 166 1904 25
1997 40 1905 28
1998 182 1906 163
1999 177 1907 13
2000 116 1908 95
2001 106 1909 92
2002 66 1910 64
2003 175 1911 36

35y average
86.6 ACE 93.9 ACE

Hat tip to Benny Peiser.

5 comments:

  1. woody6:41 PM

    I am of the opinion that if the globe gets too warm we can easily cool it off with nuclear winter.

    Nuclear Winter is such a 1980s concept!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Unfortunately I heard Gray going head-to-head with alarmists on NPR, and he came off as a boor while they sounded very calm and scientific.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Do you think it was just a bad personality, or was it his case?

    ReplyDelete
  4. "Do you think that global warming has had an affect on the intensity of hurricanes?" is a trick question like... 'are you still beating your spouse?' I haven't noticed any global warming. And, I'm still reeling from the warnings of the coming ice age I got in the 1970's.

    ReplyDelete
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