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Monday, May 14, 2012

GOP Delegate Count: May Eighth's Three Primaries

Romney: 84
Paul: 6

The popular vote for the three states combined went about six-to-one for Romney over Paul. In fact, two candidates no longer in the race, combined, received many more votes than did Paul.

Why do I continue posting on this topic? Well, I hope that some of the people who were saying "Paul has an excellent shot at winning the GOP nomination" will stop and ask themselves, "What the hell was I thinking? How did I wind up convincing myself that this was true? And what about the people who were selling me this idea? Did they really believe it?"

Because it was obvious to anyone looking at the situation realistically, whether or not they wished Paul could win, that he could not win. As I have said repeatedly, the calculus is very, very simple: a dove cannot win the presidential nomination of a party where 80% or more of the voters are seriously hawkish. It would be kind of like F.A. Hayek running for the Soviet premiership in 1960: as much as I would have preferred Hayek to any actual Soviet politician, it would be pretty crazy to think he "stands a very good chance of winning." And it would hardly be "treason" for someone to have pointed out that it was nuts to place any hope in this happening.


11 comments:

  1. My attention has been far more concerned with getting Hank into the Senate.

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  2. Just so you know, at this point if Ron Paul wins the nomination, my first thought will be, "Ha! I can't wait to see Gene blog his way out of this." Then a few minutes later, after basking in pure joy, I will think, "Oh, and that's cool about ending the wars and fixing the economy too."

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    1. I love many of Paul's platforms. Precisely those bits are why I knew he could not win the GOP nomination.

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    2. Do you think it would have been better had he run third party? The GOP might be going in the wrong direction but at least it is a credible vehicle to the Presidency. I'm not sure I could say the same about the Libertarian Party.

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    3. I'm not saying he was wrong to run. I just knew he couldn't win.

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    4. Bob, if Paul wins the nomination, I also predict that Rand will have come out and said, "And I'm even gayer than Obama," and Ray Allen will have hit 28 three-pointers in a finals game versus the Lakers.

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    5. Now that Paul has dropped out of the race, do you still think he will win?

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    6. According to his campaign website, he has not dropped out of the race, rather he has changed strategies.

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    7. Yes, the "new strategy" is to stop campaigning. In other words, he is out of the race.

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    8. I'm just repeating what is on his site. Regarding my own opinion of the campaign, my expectations were fully met, but my desires were not.

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    9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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