Friday, October 09, 2015

Thinking about data

The TV shows that a certain pitcher has a higher ERA in the playoffs than in the regular season. The announcers cite this as evidence that this pitcher is not a "clutch player."

But there is a more parsimonious interpretation for this fact: what is it?


  1. Opponents are better in the playoffs.

  2. He's facing better competition.

    Also sample size is much too small!

    To be fair there are people who choke under pressure. Rarer than TV says for sure. The flip side is also true. Some clutch players are just clutch because of a small sample set.

    1. Of course there are people who choke.


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