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Tuesday, November 29, 2011

So, Where Is The Surge?

People like Bob Murphy keep saying things like, 'It’s funny how the various objections to Ron Paul as a “serious” candidate keep falling away.' Oddly, though, the basic facts that make me think Paul has no chance of winning the GOP nomination look exactly like what they looked like eight months ago. Check out Real Clear Politics, which compiles lots of good political data. There you can see that Paul's campaign cannot get him lastingly above 10% in the national polls. He loses to Obama worse than does Romney. Paul is running fourth in Iowa, third in New Hampshire, and fifth in South Carolina, with only about 5% of the vote.

And in the national polls, he is just sitting there: no movement at all for months. He is now better known, but the plain fact is, most GOP voters don't like what they see! They think Obama is too soft on Iran and is selling out Israel, which are big reasons why they want a Republican president, and they see Paul as even worse on both issues. (And I say this as someone who thinks Paul is better on both issues than Obama.) Eight or ten percent of GOP voters love him, while ninety percent will vote for pretty much anyone else.

3 comments:

  1. Hold on Gene...

    ...are you telling me - and don't water it down for the sake of my tender ears - that, in fact, winning a plurality of votes early on in a crowded field of largely identical conservative candidates in a conservative party is NOT THE SAME THING as winning a majority of support in that same conservative policy or even a majority in a general election!

    ZOUNDS!

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  2. He loses to Obama worse than does Romney.

    It's also true to say, Ron Paul stacks up better against Obama than any other Republican candidate, except Romney (and now Gingrich).

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  3. *in that same conservative party

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