Scott Sumner is triumphant about the April jobs number. Monetarism has apparently now been as good as proven.
Can you imagine someone from the natural sciences putting forward a claim that a rival school (in Sumner's case, Keynesians) had been entirely vanquished on the basis of similar evidence?
Biologist Will Wintner: I have empirical evidence proving the rival school of cancer cell mutation wrong! I am triumphant!
Journal Editor: Ah, so this evidence is from repeated, duplicable laboratory experiments with tight environmental controls?
BWW: Well, no...
JE: Oh, clinical trials, then, dozens of them with hundreds of cases each and well-designed control groups?
BWW: Not exactly...
JE: So what is this evidence?
BWW: Well, I'm pretty sure I saw the mutation happening the way I think it does in nature.
JE: No control group to compare to?
JE: No scientific control of the environment?
BWW: None whatsoever.
JE: Yes, and how many times did you see this happen?
BWW: Just once.
NB: My point is not that Sumner is wrong -- I don't know --but that this is going to be really convincing only for those who are already in his camp.