More chance of percipitation weirdness

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Right now The Weather Channel is saying there is a 30% chance of rain at anytime today. It is also saying that at 5pm there is a 50% chance of rain, and then a 40% chance for every hour for the rest of the evening. So rain is far more likely in the last seven hours of the day than it is for the whole 24!

Comments

  1. Lord3:50 PM

    That would be assured by the mean value theorem if the probability is less than 30% for first 17.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. gcallah3:52 PM

      No that is not what the percentage for the day is supposed to mean! It is defined as the chance that they'll be rain at ANY point during the day. Thus, it should NEVER be lower than the highest hourly number seen during that day.

      Delete
    2. gcallah4:37 PM

      Also Lord, here is what is a bit annoying about your response: We actually don't need anything as fancy as the mean value theorem; My kids all understood That the average of a series was likely to be under the high-value of the series in about fourth grade.

      So you were faced with two possibilities:

      1) Gene is an absolute idiot who despite having a PhD does not even understand grade school math; or

      2) Perhaps I (Lord) have misunderstood what he's getting at here.

      You always seem to pick 1)

      Delete
    3. gcallah6:51 PM

      Ok, Lord, I was giving you a chance, But with that last comment, You were being a total ass.

      Bye.

      Delete
    4. gcallah6:58 PM

      I know, Lord: Several hundred people a day read this blog. The only one with whom I keep hitting this problem is... YOU. Therefore, I think it is safe to say The problem lies In the reader, Not the writer.

      Delete
  2. Bob Murphy11:56 PM

    Normally Gene I think you exaggerate the problem with these things, but I agree, this one is plain goofy. I can't even come up with what they "meant."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. gcallah12:00 AM

      I think the problem is just lazy website updating.

      Delete

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