The Antifragile Chaos Monkey
Probably because the betting man gets vastly better odds from Intrade.
I don't believe offers a bet such as the one I am offering. That guest author over at Murphy's site claims Paul is really even with Romney in delegates. I'm saying, "OK, I'll spot you 500, and bet he is still not even!"If he really believes what he says, why would he not take this bet?
Intrade does offer a "Ron Paul to be GOP nominee" market. An even bet for $1,000 - albeit with a 500 delegate handicap - looks downright stingy given the 100 to 1 odds Intrade is giving.I'm sure if you sweetened the deal to 50 to 1, you'd have some takers.
I'm not sure how you can translate a bet with odds into a bet with points like that. But, in any case, given that the people I was offering the bet to thought Paul was even with Romney, being given 500 delegates should have been a pretty good deal.
It is good, but not as good as available from Intrade. Not even close.