I don't believe offers a bet such as the one I am offering. That guest author over at Murphy's site claims Paul is really even with Romney in delegates. I'm saying, "OK, I'll spot you 500, and bet he is still not even!"
If he really believes what he says, why would he not take this bet?
Intrade does offer a "Ron Paul to be GOP nominee" market. An even bet for $1,000 - albeit with a 500 delegate handicap - looks downright stingy given the 100 to 1 odds Intrade is giving.
I'm sure if you sweetened the deal to 50 to 1, you'd have some takers.
I'm not sure how you can translate a bet with odds into a bet with points like that. But, in any case, given that the people I was offering the bet to thought Paul was even with Romney, being given 500 delegates should have been a pretty good deal.
"All of this means that while the government has been artificially propping up the economy and 'stimulating' it through artificial means, peoples’ perceptions of economic life have been transformed into that which was intended by the central planners: the economic crush is over, our government cured all the problems, things are great again, go back to your old ways. Rinse and repeat."
I used to never see two G trains in a row at the Carroll Street station, but I would often see two, or even three, F trains coming before the G did. "Why," I wondered, "are there so many more F trains than G trains?"
That was when I was riding the G. Now I take the F... and I never see two Fs in a row. For the same reason that lost things are always in "the last place you look for them"... because once you find them, you stop looking. And once your train comes, you stop waiting. So you only ever see the other guy's train come several times in a row.
Probably because the betting man gets vastly better odds from Intrade.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe offers a bet such as the one I am offering. That guest author over at Murphy's site claims Paul is really even with Romney in delegates. I'm saying, "OK, I'll spot you 500, and bet he is still not even!"
ReplyDeleteIf he really believes what he says, why would he not take this bet?
Intrade does offer a "Ron Paul to be GOP nominee" market. An even bet for $1,000 - albeit with a 500 delegate handicap - looks downright stingy given the 100 to 1 odds Intrade is giving.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure if you sweetened the deal to 50 to 1, you'd have some takers.
I'm not sure how you can translate a bet with odds into a bet with points like that. But, in any case, given that the people I was offering the bet to thought Paul was even with Romney, being given 500 delegates should have been a pretty good deal.
DeleteIt is good, but not as good as available from Intrade. Not even close.
Delete