Interpreting Nevada

Romney will be the nominee. Gingrich will be able to challenge him in a few states where he is (or almost is) a native son, e.g., he is likely to take Georgia. But Gingrich has too much baggage, and too little money, too represent a serious threat.

Paul did well: it looks like about 18% of the vote for a third place finish. But this is a state in which he campaigned fairly hard, that is fairly libertarian, and which has a caucus, which everyone says favors Paul vis-a-vis primaries. So my prediction is bearing out: the ceiling on Paul's support is roughly 20%. I didn't arrive at this estimate because I hate Paul, or in order to stab him in the back. I arrived at it by considering this simple fact: about 80% of GOP voters are enthusiastically hawkish. Ron Paul is the anti-hawk. How the hell is he going to get the votes of that 80%?

Well, he isn't! This is reality, not Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. Look, I really wish these people weren't all so hawkish. I think their position is evil and destructive. But my wishing isn't going to change a thing.

And I'll let you in on another little secret: Ron Paul and Lew Rockwell are experienced, savvy political operators. They have known the above fact since the start of the campaign. Neither of them has ever thought that Paul had any chance of winning. (And by any chance, I mean any realistic chance.) This is a campaign aimed at influence. And it just may garner some.