Gary North caused me to doubt my forecast of high price inflation when he pointed out that M1 had been virtually flat for years. In conjunction with (what was to me) a shocking flat CPI for February, it was enough to make me squirm.
But as this FRED chart shows, annual % change in M1 is almost the mirror image of the same in CPI. In particular, during recessions M1 growth usually drops through the floor, while CPI growth goes through the roof. (Yes that's right, inflation goes way up during recessions, at least since the mid-1960s.)
BTW, if anyone knows how I can embed these FRED graphs directly in the blog post, please let me know.
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Is shaping up nicely .
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