Tuesday, March 06, 2012

I was a cocksure SOB, and Murphy warned me about it after Iowa

Although only 12% of the vote is in, it is obvious Ron Paul will be well over 30% in Virginia when all the ballots are counted. And I am a man of my word. Paul is still going to lose by quite a bit, but I am truly surprised to see him doing this well.


  1. You're being a little generous. The two man race is pushing the parameters of the bet.

  2. Ah, I see you are no Krugman. And actually you might have gotten away with it for a while; I very well may have forgotten. BTW the original formulation didn't include caucuses (like Maine); were you doing that intentionally? (I'm genuinely curious.)

  3. Gabe how so? In fact the two-man race perfectly isolates the different interpretations Gene and I gave to the Iowa outcome. (But I'm not claiming victory, since I was just saying at the time that Gene's theory was only one possible explanation; I wasn't confident that my interpretation was the right one.)

  4. I guess you're right. I am pretty confident Gene's take was right, though. When he says Paul would have done worse if Gingerich and Santorum (I caught a few lines of his speech yesterday, which would have been hilarious if it were in a movie) had already dropped out, I think he's also right, even though it's extremely hard for me to understand the mind of a person who vehemently opposes Romney but hates Paul even more. I suppose these are people who will make up the American Catholic Church when the prophecies of "Love In the Ruins" are finally fulfilled.



"If your approach to mathematics is mechanical not mystical, you're not going to go anywhere." -- Nassim Nicholas Taleb