I was a cocksure SOB, and Murphy warned me about it after Iowa

Although only 12% of the vote is in, it is obvious Ron Paul will be well over 30% in Virginia when all the ballots are counted. And I am a man of my word. Paul is still going to lose by quite a bit, but I am truly surprised to see him doing this well.


  1. You're being a little generous. The two man race is pushing the parameters of the bet.

  2. Ah, I see you are no Krugman. And actually you might have gotten away with it for a while; I very well may have forgotten. BTW the original formulation didn't include caucuses (like Maine); were you doing that intentionally? (I'm genuinely curious.)

  3. Gabe how so? In fact the two-man race perfectly isolates the different interpretations Gene and I gave to the Iowa outcome. (But I'm not claiming victory, since I was just saying at the time that Gene's theory was only one possible explanation; I wasn't confident that my interpretation was the right one.)

  4. I guess you're right. I am pretty confident Gene's take was right, though. When he says Paul would have done worse if Gingerich and Santorum (I caught a few lines of his speech yesterday, which would have been hilarious if it were in a movie) had already dropped out, I think he's also right, even though it's extremely hard for me to understand the mind of a person who vehemently opposes Romney but hates Paul even more. I suppose these are people who will make up the American Catholic Church when the prophecies of "Love In the Ruins" are finally fulfilled.


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